AUTHOR=Xue Zhun Ping , Chindelevitch Leonid , Guichard Frédéric TITLE=Supply-driven evolution: Mutation bias and trait-fitness distributions can drive macro-evolutionary dynamics JOURNAL=Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution VOLUME=10 YEAR=2023 URL=https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/ecology-and-evolution/articles/10.3389/fevo.2022.1048752 DOI=10.3389/fevo.2022.1048752 ISSN=2296-701X ABSTRACT=

Many well-documented macro-evolutionary phenomena still challenge current evolutionary theory. Examples include long-term evolutionary trends, major transitions in evolution, conservation of certain biological features such as hox genes, and the episodic creation of new taxa. Here, we present a framework that may explain these phenomena. We do so by introducing a probabilistic relationship between trait value and reproductive fitness. This integration allows mutation bias to become a robust driver of long-term evolutionary trends against environmental bias, in a way that is consistent with all current evolutionary theories. In cases where mutation bias is strong, such as when detrimental mutations are more common than beneficial mutations, a regime called “supply-driven” evolution can arise. This regime can explain the irreversible persistence of higher structural hierarchies, which happens in the major transitions in evolution. We further generalize this result in the long-term dynamics of phenotype spaces. We show how mutations that open new phenotype spaces can become frozen in time. At the same time, new possibilities may be observed as a burst in the creation of new taxa.