AUTHOR=Tang Xinggang , Yuan Yingdan , Zhang Jinchi 

TITLE=How Climate Change Will Alter the Distribution of Suitable Dendrobium Habitats

JOURNAL=Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution

VOLUME=8

YEAR=2020

URL=https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/ecology-and-evolution/articles/10.3389/fevo.2020.536339

DOI=10.3389/fevo.2020.536339

ISSN=2296-701X

ABSTRACT=<p>To protect endangered species and restore their habitats, it is important to be able to predict their potential geographic distributions. The <italic>Dendrobium</italic> plant is important in traditional Chinese medicine, but urban expansion and over-exploitation have led to a decrease of <italic>Dendrobium</italic> resources. To achieve sustainable development of <italic>Dendrobium</italic> resources, the spatial and temporal distribution of two <italic>Dendrobium</italic> species were systematically analyzed based on the distribution points of <italic>D. moniliforme</italic> (104) and <italic>D. nobile</italic> (87). Maximum entropy modeling (MaxEnt) was used to predict the distribution of suitable habitats for these <italic>Dendrobium</italic> species, both currently and in the future, under different representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Three RCPs included RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5. The results show that <italic>D. moniliforme</italic> and <italic>D. nobile</italic> are widely distributed in the south of China (Anhui, Guangdong, Jiangxi, and Hunan provinces). Worldwide, Japan and North Korea were identified as major distribution areas for <italic>D. moniliforme</italic> and <italic>D. nobile</italic>. Based on the MaxEnt model, the mean diurnal range and the minimum temperature of the coldest month were identified as the most significant bioclimatic variables controlling the distribution of <italic>D. moniliforme</italic> and <italic>D. nobile</italic>. Future climate change will likely result in an increase of suitable habitat areas for <italic>D. moniliforme</italic> (by around 16%), and a decrease for <italic>D. nobile</italic> (by around 1–10%), but climate change is unlikely to have much impact on the distribution of suitable habitats for <italic>D. moniliforme</italic> and <italic>D. nobile</italic> in Japan and North Korea. Based on our findings, measures should be taken to protect these precious medicinal plant resources, and the sites used for the artificial cultivation of <italic>Dendrobium</italic> will need to shift as the climate changes.</p>