95% of researchers rate our articles as excellent or good
Learn more about the work of our research integrity team to safeguard the quality of each article we publish.
Find out more
ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Earth Sci.
Sec. Geoscience and Society
Volume 13 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/feart.2025.1520813
This article is part of the Research Topic Exploration, Development, and Protection of Earth’s Resources and Environment: Methods, Techniques, Applications, Prospects, Insights, and Problems View all 43 articles
Research on the Supply Risk Propagation in the Global Iron Ore Trade Network
Provisionally accepted- Institute of Mineral Resources, Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences, Beijing, China
Iron ore serves as a critical resource underpinning global industrialization, extensively utilized in steel production and infrastructure development. Amid increasing complexities in the global economic landscape, risks and uncertainties within iron ore supply chains have intensified, particularly under the influence of geopolitical conflicts and trade protectionism. Leveraging 2023 iron ore trade data, this study constructs a global iron ore trade network using complex network theory and develops a cascading failure model to assess systemic vulnerabilities. Key findings include: ⅰ:The iron ore trade system exhibits a centralized structure dominated by China, Australia, and Brazil, resulting in elevated supply risks. Supply disruptions could propagate crises, potentially disrupting supply chains in over 40% of participating nations.ⅱ:Community 1 (China, Australia, Brazil) accounts for 90% of trade volume and demonstrates heightened susceptibility to cascading failures. In contrast, Community 2 (Canada, Germany, South Africa) mitigates crisis propagation through diversified supply strategies. Enhanced cross-community linkages facilitated by nations like India reduce systemic risks. ⅲ:Critical node failures yield disproportionate impacts: Increasing the risk resilience parameter β from 0.2 to 0.4 reduces cascade magnitude by 62%. While Brazilian disruptions trigger extensive spatial propagation, Australia's export concentration renders downstream industries more vulnerable to paralysis despite narrower geographic impacts. ⅳ:Strategic recommendations emphasize strengthening national risk resilience, cultivating alternative suppliers, and developing simulation systems to optimize preemptive contingency planning. This analysis provides actionable insights for enhancing the robustness of global resource trade networks amid escalating geopolitical and economic uncertainties.
Keywords: Iron ore trade, supply crisis, Crisis propagation, Complex Network, Cascade failure
Received: 31 Oct 2024; Accepted: 26 Mar 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Liu, Ting, Wang and Liu. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence:
Zhao Ting, Institute of Mineral Resources, Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences, Beijing, China
Gaoshang Wang, Institute of Mineral Resources, Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences, Beijing, China
Disclaimer: All claims expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of their affiliated organizations, or those of the publisher, the editors and the reviewers. Any product that may be evaluated in this article or claim that may be made by its manufacturer is not guaranteed or endorsed by the publisher.