Xiangying Jia ^1,2* Chonghao Liu ^1,2* Tianjiao Li ^1,2* Jing Liu ^1,2* Wang Xiu ^1,2

• ¹ Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences, Beijing, China
• ² Institute of Mineral Resources, Beijing, China

Nickel, as a critical mineral resource, plays an increasingly vital role in new energy technologies, and the stability of its global supply chain is crucial for addressing the impacts of country risk and unforeseen events. To clarify the impact of country risk on the nickel supply chain, this study bases on global trade data for nickel ores, ferro-nickel, and stainless-steel from 2000 to 2022, uses complex network theory to measure the global nickel trade pattern, and further employs panel regression to analyze the effects of these risks on the trade structure of nickel commodities, exploring the drivers of the global nickel supply chain pattern. The study finds that a small increase in economic risk has a positive impact on the scale of nickel ores imports, indicating that countries are more inclined to diversify supply sources under economic uncertainty to ensure the stability of resource supply. On the other hand, political risks have a negative impact on the export scale of nickel ores and stainless-steel, indicating that political instability may lead to export disruption or reduction. Moreover, political risk significantly weakens the resource control capabilities of exporting countries, while economic risk has a slight positive effect on the resource counter-control capabilities of importing countries. Adjustments in industrial structure and increased investment in R&D significantly affect the trade structure of nickel commodities, especially for stainless-steel, highlighting that technological innovation and industrial upgrading are key factors in enhancing a nation's position in global trade. The concentration of the global nickel trade network has gradually increased, with China, as a major consumer and importer of nickel, occupying an important position in the global market. Indonesia and the Philippines, as major exporters of nickel ores, have significant impacts on the global market when their policies change. This study provides empirical analysis for understanding and addressing the impact of country risk on the global nickel supply chain trade pattern and offers a scientific basis for related policy-making and strategic planning.