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ORIGINAL RESEARCH article

Front. Earth Sci.
Sec. Geoscience and Society
Volume 12 - 2024 | doi: 10.3389/feart.2024.1431635
This article is part of the Research Topic Exploration, Development, and Protection of Earth’s Resources and Environment: Methods, Techniques, Applications, Prospects, Insights, and Problems View all 16 articles

Monte Carlo Simulation and PMF Model for Assessing Human Health Risks Associated with Heavy Metals in Groundwater: A Case Study of the Nubian Aquifer, Siwa Depression, Egypt

Provisionally accepted
Mohamed Hamdy Eid Mohamed Hamdy Eid 1*Viktoria Mikita Viktoria Mikita 1Mustafa Eissa Mustafa Eissa 2Hatem Saad Ramadan Hatem Saad Ramadan 3Essam A. Mohamed Essam A. Mohamed 3Mostafa Abukhadra Mostafa Abukhadra 3Ahmed El-Sherbeeny Ahmed El-Sherbeeny 4Stefano Bellucci Stefano Bellucci 5*Attila Kovács Attila Kovács 1Péter Szűcs Péter Szűcs 1
  • 1 University of Miskolc, Miskolc, Hungary
  • 2 Desert Research Center, Cairo, Cairo, Egypt
  • 3 Beni-Suef University, Beni-Suef, Beni-Suef, Egypt
  • 4 King Saud University, Riyadh, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
  • 5 National Laboratory of Frascati (INFN), Frascati, Italy

The final, formatted version of the article will be published soon.

    The current study integrates isotopic tracers, hydrogeochemistry, geophysical logs, positive matrix factorization (PMF model), and Monte Carlo (MCS) simulation for pollution source apportionment and health risks associated with heavy metals in the Nubian Sandstone aquifer (NSSA). The water resource used for drinking purposes (NSSA) is pale meteoric water (non-rechargeable aquifer). Silicate weathering, old trapped sea water, reverse ion exchange evaporation, and dissolution are the dominant mechanisms controlling water chemistry. PMF model showed that the major ions and heavy metals in groundwater of the NSSA originated from four significant sources (anthropogenic activities, dissolution of minerals, iron-bearing minerals, mixing with old trapped seawater, and hydrothermal water). The total risk (HI) oral values highlighted significant noncarcinogenic dangers for adults and children through the oral exposure. At the same time, dermal contact posed a no risk for adults and a high risk for children. Most samples had carcinogenic risks (CR) values higher than the allowed limits (1.0E-4) for metals like Cadmium, chromium, and lead, suggesting carcinogenic effects across all age groups. The Monte Carlo approachbased health concern evaluation model assessed the 5th % CR oral values (child) as 0.00012, 0.0036, and 0.0088 for Cd, Cr, and Pb, respectively, indicating more significant potential dangers to children. Urgent and comprehensive water treatment measures are imperative to mitigate the identified carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic health risks in the study area.

    Keywords: Groundwater, Siwa Oasis, Source appointement, health risk, PTES, Nubian Aquifer System

    Received: 12 May 2024; Accepted: 04 Sep 2024.

    Copyright: © 2024 Eid, Mikita, Eissa, Ramadan, Mohamed, Abukhadra, El-Sherbeeny, Bellucci, Kovács and Szűcs. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.

    * Correspondence:
    Mohamed Hamdy Eid, University of Miskolc, Miskolc, Hungary
    Stefano Bellucci, National Laboratory of Frascati (INFN), Frascati, 00044, Italy

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