AUTHOR=Rabonza Maricar L. , Lin Yolanda C. , Lallemant David TITLE=Learning From Success, Not Catastrophe: Using Counterfactual Analysis to Highlight Successful Disaster Risk Reduction Interventions JOURNAL=Frontiers in Earth Science VOLUME=10 YEAR=2022 URL=https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/earth-science/articles/10.3389/feart.2022.847196 DOI=10.3389/feart.2022.847196 ISSN=2296-6463 ABSTRACT=
In the aftermath of a disaster, news and research attention is focused almost entirely on catastrophic narratives and the various drivers that may have led to the disaster. Learning from failure is essential to preventing future disasters. However, hyperfixation on the catastrophe obscures potential successes at the local scale, which could serve as important examples and learning resources in effective risk mitigation. To highlight effective risk mitigation actions that would otherwise remain unnoticed, we propose the use of probabilistic downward counterfactual analysis. This approach uses counterfactual modelling of a past hazard event with consequences made worse (i.e. downward counterfactual) by the absence of the mitigation intervention. The approach follows probabilistic risk analysis procedures where uncertainties in the simulated events and outcomes are accounted for and propagated. We demonstrate the method using a case study of Nepal’s School Earthquake Safety Program, implemented before the 2015