AUTHOR=Elshall Ahmed S. , Ye Ming , Kranz Sven A. , Harrington Julie , Yang Xiaojuan , Wan Yongshan , Maltrud Mathew TITLE=Prescreening-Based Subset Selection for Improving Predictions of Earth System Models With Application to Regional Prediction of Red Tide JOURNAL=Frontiers in Earth Science VOLUME=10 YEAR=2022 URL=https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/earth-science/articles/10.3389/feart.2022.786223 DOI=10.3389/feart.2022.786223 ISSN=2296-6463 ABSTRACT=
We present the ensemble method of prescreening-based subset selection to improve ensemble predictions of Earth system models (ESMs). In the prescreening step, the independent ensemble members are categorized based on their ability to reproduce physically-interpretable features of interest that are regional and problem-specific. The ensemble size is then updated by selecting the subsets that improve the performance of the ensemble prediction using decision relevant metrics. We apply the method to improve the prediction of red tide along the West Florida Shelf in the Gulf of Mexico, which affects coastal water quality and has substantial environmental and socioeconomic impacts on the State of Florida. Red tide is a common name for harmful algal blooms that occur worldwide, which result from large concentrations of aquatic microorganisms, such as dinoflagellate