AUTHOR=Li Haitao , Yu Guo , Fang Yizhu , Chen Yu , Zhang Dongming 

TITLE=Studies of natural gas production prediction and risk assessment for tight gas in Sichuan Basin

JOURNAL=Frontiers in Earth Science

VOLUME=10

YEAR=2023

URL=https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/earth-science/articles/10.3389/feart.2022.1059832

DOI=10.3389/feart.2022.1059832

ISSN=2296-6463

ABSTRACT=<p>After a new round of tight gas geological evaluation was launched in 2018, a new chapter of tight gas exploration and development has been opened in the Sichuan Basin. In order to make better planning work, it is very important to study the variation rule and risk assessment of tight gas production. In this paper, the peak production is predicted by Ward model. Based on the prediction results, Hubbert and Gauss models were established to study the variation law of tight gas production, and the accuracy and prediction results of the models were determined by the degree of fitting and correlation coefficient. By studying the relationship between <italic>URR</italic> and production, it is concluded that the production increases in a step, and the future production of tight gas is simulated from the perspective of realization probability. Finally, the risk assessment matrix is established to study the difficulty degree of achieving the production target. The results are as follows: 1) Hubbert model has higher accuracy in predicting tight gas production change. The peak year of tight gas is 2042, the peak production is <inline-formula id="inf1"><mml:math id="m1" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"><mml:mrow><mml:mrow><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mrow><mml:mn>86</mml:mn><mml:mo>−</mml:mo><mml:mn>106</mml:mn></mml:mrow><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow><mml:mo>×</mml:mo><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mn>10</mml:mn><mml:mn>8</mml:mn></mml:msup><mml:mi>m</mml:mi></mml:mrow><mml:mn>3</mml:mn></mml:msup><mml:mo>/</mml:mo><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">a</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, and the final <italic>URR</italic> recovery degree is about 60%. 2) The realization probability of production is calculated, and the possibility of reaching the target value is evaluated from the perspective of risk, so as to guide the production of tight gas, and finally promote the formulation of tight gas development planning in the Sichuan Basin.</p>