AUTHOR=Dunant Alexandre TITLE=Are We Missing the Target? A Bias-Variance Perspective on Multi-Hazard Risk Assessment JOURNAL=Frontiers in Earth Science VOLUME=9 YEAR=2021 URL=https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/earth-science/articles/10.3389/feart.2021.685301 DOI=10.3389/feart.2021.685301 ISSN=2296-6463 ABSTRACT=

This paper presents a generalization of the bias-variance tradeoff applied to the recent trend toward natural multi-hazard risk assessment. The bias-variance dilemma, a well-known machine learning theory, is presented in the context of natural hazard modeling. It is then argued that the bias-variance statistical concept can provide an analytical framework for the necessity to direct efforts toward systemic risk assessment using multi-hazard catastrophe modeling and inform future mitigation practices.