AUTHOR=Bombardi Rodrigo J. , Pegion Kathy V. , Kinter James L. , Cash Benjamin A. , Adams Jennifer M. TITLE=Sub-seasonal Predictability of the Onset and Demise of the Rainy Season over Monsoonal Regions JOURNAL=Frontiers in Earth Science VOLUME=5 YEAR=2017 URL=https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/earth-science/articles/10.3389/feart.2017.00014 DOI=10.3389/feart.2017.00014 ISSN=2296-6463 ABSTRACT=

Sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) retrospective forecasts from three global coupled models are used to evaluate the predictability of the onset and demise dates of the rainy season over monsoonal regions. The onset and demise dates of the rainy season are defined using only precipitation data. The forecasts of the onset and demise dates of the rainy season are based on a hybrid methodology that combines observations and simulations. Although skillful model precipitation predictions remain challenging in many regions, our results show that they are skillful enough to identify onset and demise dates of the rainy season in many monsoon regions at sub-seasonal (~30 days) lead-times in retrospective forecasts. We verify sub-seasonal prediction skill for the onset and demise dates of the rainy season over South America, East Asia, and Northern Australia. However, we find low prediction skill for the onset and demise of the rainy season on sub-seasonal scales over the Indian monsoon region. This information would be valuable to sectors related to water management.