Flávio M. Mota ^1,2* Kyle D. Kittelberger ² Cristian F. Paí ³ Çağan H. Şekercioğlu ²

• ¹ Universidade Estadual de Santa Cruz, Ilhéus, Brazil
• ² The University of Utah, Salt Lake City, Utah, United States
• ³ Los Colibrís de Altaquer Ecological Foundation, Altaquer, Colombia

Climate change poses a significant threat to bird communities, forcing species to either shift their distributions or face local extinctions. Forest-dwelling and narrowly distributed species are expected to experience more drastic range contractions and face higher extinction risks compared to widely distributed and open-area species. In this study, we focused on the Chocó region in southwestern Colombia, recognized as a biodiversity hotspot with the highest concentration of endemic birds globally. We used eBird occurrence records and climate data to predict potential changes in the distributions of 27 endemic and near-endemic bird species under both low and high greenhouse gas emission scenarios for 2050 and 2070. We assessed these projected distributions against currently forested and protected areas to understand future conservation needs. Nearly all species are projected to lose climate-suitable areas in at least one future scenario, leading to a decrease in regional species richness. Species richness variation suggests higher losses and gains near the Colombia-Ecuador border, indicating possible range shifts to higher elevations. The proportion of suitable areas within forested and protected areas is considerably smaller compared to the total range of our study species, emphasizing the need to safeguard regions that are expected to maintain natural vegetation and suitable climatic conditions in the future. At the species level, the Scarlet-and-white Tanager (Chrysothlypis salmoni) is projected to face the greatest loss in total climate suitable area, as well as within protected and forested areas. To mitigate these potential losses, expanding the protected area network and ensuring the conservation of key forested regions is crucial for enabling species to keep pace with climate change. By providing projected distribution maps and potential elevational range shifts for 27 Neotropical birds, our results underscore the value of modelling future distributions of tropical montane species to forecast potential regional climate-driven extirpations and aid in conservation planning for at-risk species and the ecological services they provide.