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ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Clim.
Sec. Climate Adaptation
Volume 7 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/fclim.2025.1581382
This article is part of the Research TopicClimate-Environment Resiliency and AdaptationView all articles
Investigation and Future Projections of Warm Rain During the Winter Monsoon in the Western Java Sea, Indonesia
Provisionally accepted
Wendi Harjupa*
Eiichi Nakakita- Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan
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This study investigates the characteristics and future projections of warm rain during the winter monsoon (December-February; DJF) over the western part of the Java Sea (WJS), Indonesia, using satellite observations (TRMM), reanalysis data (ERA5), and model simulations (Atmospheric General Circulation Model; AGCM). The WJS, influenced by winter monsoon, experiences increased Sea Surface Temperatures (SST), which play a significant role in atmospheric dynamics and precipitation. Analysis of ERA5 data from 1950 to 2009 indicates a significant upward trend in SST for both the Indonesian region (slope 0.0070 o C/yr) and the WJS (slope 0.0094 o C/yr), with the highest SST increases occurring during DJF. Relating SST and Cloud Liquid Water Content (CLWC) during DJF shows a positive correlation coefficient (R) The Correlation Coefficient (R) between SST and Cloud Liquid Water Content (CLWC) during DJF demonstrates positive correlations in the pathway of winter monsoon including the WJS. The R between cloud particles (CLWC, graupel and Cloud Ice Water Content; CIWC) and rainfall during DJF in WJS shows that the R is higher for CLWC and rainfall which indicatesd the importance of CLWC. Warm rain processes, driven by CLWC, are evident, as TRMM observations of shallow rainfall align with CLWC spatial distributions. AGCM simulations successfully replicate the observed CLWC patterns, showing strong agreement with TRMM data in the western region of Indonesia including WJS. The study also compares low-level convergence patterns from ERA5 and AGCM data at 925 hPa, revealing similar trends in WJS, where convergence facilitates CLWC formation. The analysis of CLWC percentiles at an average of 1000-700 hPa highlights a significant increase in CLWC over the pathway of winter monsoon, including the WJS, during DJF across 30-year intervals. The trends of CLWC for the Indonesia area and WJS also demonstrate the increasing value. These findings underscore the critical role of the winter monsoon in shaping warm rain processes in WJS and its implications for extreme weather events, such as flooding in the land areas such as Jakarta.
Keywords: climate change1, SST2, warm rain3, CLWC4, TRMM5, AGCM6
Received: 22 Feb 2025; Accepted: 14 Apr 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Harjupa and Nakakita. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence: Wendi Harjupa, Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan
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