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ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Clim.
Sec. Climate Services
Volume 7 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/fclim.2025.1564665
Flood Projections over the White Volta Basin Under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: An Analytical Hierarchical Approach
Provisionally accepted
AMOS TIEREYANGN KABO-BAH 
Cobinna Nana Asirifi *
Ebenezer K. Siabi Sarah Elikplim Siabi Wisdom Bruce Ahiada - University of Energy and Natural Resources, Sunyani, Ghana
Flooding in Ghana’s White Volta Basin presents critical environmental and socioeconomic challenges, influenced by natural and anthropogenic factors. This study assessed future flood vulnerabilities and projections using precipitation and temperature data from 15 Global Climate Models (GCMs) under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 1-2.6, SSP1-2.6, 2-4.5, 3-7.0 and 5-8.5 scenarios from the IPCC 6th Assessment Report. Bias correction was conducted with CMhyd software, utilizing data from Ghana Meteorological Agency (GMET) stations and ERA5 reanalysis across three intervals: 1960–2015 (baseline), 1981–2020 (validation), and future periods (2020–2039, 2040–2079, 2080–2100). Model validation metrics—R² (90–100%), NSE (0.384–1), RMSE (789–10,967 mm), and PBIAS (–7.2% to 26%) indicated strong alignment with observed data. Projections revealed a decline in precipitation under all SSPs, with the sharpest reduction under SSP5-8.5. Tamale is expected to receive the highest rainfall, while Garu experiences the lowest. Flood susceptibility maps, developed using an Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), integrated ten parameters, including elevation, slope, drainage density, The Topographic Wetness Index, The Stream Power Index, soil type, and precipitation. Flood susceptibility was categorized into five classes: very high (12.09%), high (22.56%), moderate (24.38%), low (24.36%), and very low (16.64%). Future scenarios showed significant reductions in high and very high zones, particularly under SSP5-8.5, with decreases of 12.21% and 3.12%, respectively. These findings underscore the impact of declining precipitation on flood susceptibility and provide critical insights for disaster risk reduction, land-use planning, and flood management in the White Volta Basin.
Keywords: Flood susceptibility, Climate Change, White Volta basin, Shared socioeconomic pathways, GIS, AHP
Received: 21 Jan 2025; Accepted: 02 Apr 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 KABO-BAH, Asirifi, Siabi, Siabi and Ahiada. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence:
Cobinna Nana Asirifi, University of Energy and Natural Resources, Sunyani, Ghana
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