Spatial assessment of current and future migration in response to climate risks in Ghana and Nigeria

Alina Schürmann ^1* Mike Teucher ¹ Janina Kleemann ² Justice Nana Inkoom ² Benjamin Kofi Nyarko ³ Appollonia Aimiosino Okhimamhe ⁴ Christopher Conrad ¹

• ¹ Department of Geoecology, Martin Luther University of Halle-Wittenberg, Halle, Germany
• ² Department of Sustainable Landscape Development, Martin Luther University of Halle-Wittenberg, Halle, Germany
• ³ Department of Geography and Regional Planning, University of Cape Coast, Cape Coast, Central Region, Ghana
• ⁴ Climate Change and Human Habitat Programme, West African Science Service Centre on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use (WASCAL CC & HH), Federal University of Technology Minna, Minna, Niger, Nigeria

West Africa's vulnerability to climate change is influenced by a complex interplay of socio-economic and environmental factors, exacerbated by the region's reliance on rain-fed agriculture. Climate variability, combined with rapid population growth, intensifies existing socio-economic challenges. Migration has become a key adaptive response to these challenges, enabling communities to diversify livelihoods and enhance resilience. However, spatial patterns of migration in response to climate risks are not fully understood.Thus, the study evaluates the applicability of the IPCC risk assessment framework to map and predict migration patterns in Ghana and Nigeria, with a focus on identifying areas of potential out-migration. By integrating geospatial environmental, socio-economic, and population data, the study highlights areas that have a higher likelihood of migration for the current baseline and near future (2050). Future climate is modeled using CMIP6 projections under the RCP4.5 scenario, while population projections providing insight into future exposure. The results from the baseline assessment are compared with actual migrant perceptionsmotivations, providing a ground-level perspective on migration drivers.In northern Ghana and Nigeria, elevated hazard, vulnerability, and exposure scores suggest a higher likelihood of migration due to the overall risk faced by the population. This pattern is projected to persist in the future. However, migrant perceptions responses indicate that environmental factors often play a secondary role, with vulnerability factors cited more frequently as migration drivers.The findings highlight the importance of developing localized adaptation strategies that address the specific needs of vulnerable areas. Additionally, management strategies that enhance community resilience and support sustainable migration pathways will be critical in addressing future climateinduced migration challenges.