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ORIGINAL RESEARCH article

Front. Clim.
Sec. Climate Adaptation
Volume 7 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/fclim.2025.1472731
This article is part of the Research Topic Coastal Climate Monitoring and Downscaling for Adaptation Planning in the Adriatic Sea View all 12 articles

The Eastern Mediterranean Sea mean sea level decadal slowdown: the effects of the water budget

Provisionally accepted
Federica Borile Federica Borile 1*Nadia Pinardi Nadia Pinardi 1,2Vladyslav Lyubartsev Vladyslav Lyubartsev 2Mahmud Hasan Ghani Mahmud Hasan Ghani 1Antonio Navarra Antonio Navarra 2,3Jacopo Alessandri Jacopo Alessandri 1Emanuela Clementi Emanuela Clementi 2Giovanni Coppini Giovanni Coppini 2Lorenzo Mentaschi Lorenzo Mentaschi 1Giorgia Verri Giorgia Verri 4Vladimir Santos da Costa Vladimir Santos da Costa 4Enrico Scoccimarro Enrico Scoccimarro 2Francesco Misurale Francesco Misurale 5Antonio Novellino Antonio Novellino 5Paolo Oddo Paolo Oddo 1
  • 1 Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Bologna, Bologna, Emilia-Romagna, Italy
  • 2 CMCC Foundation - Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Bologna, Italy
  • 3 Department of Geology, Biology, Ecology and Environmental Sciences, University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy
  • 4 CMCC Foundation - Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Lecce, Italy
  • 5 ETT SpA, Genova, Italy

The final, formatted version of the article will be published soon.

    This paper analyses the decadal variability of the Mean Sea Level (MSL) trend for the Mediterranean Sea and three subregions using a combination of satellite altimetry, tide gauges and reanalyses datasets for the past 30 years . These estimates indicate a decadal variability of the MSL across the analysed period, and a trend slowdown in the 2013-2022 decade compared to previous periods. While the overall trend remains positive across the Mediterranean basin, regional differences are evident. The Western Mediterranean shows an accelerating trend, consistent with global sea level rise, while the Eastern Mediterranean has experienced a decadal slowdown, particularly in the semi-enclosed Adriatic and Aegean Seas, where negative trends are observed. This slowdown is attributed to the combined effects of changes in the water cycle and the balancing of thermal and haline steric components. A key driver of this trend is increased evaporation, which is not offset by precipitation, runoff, or transport through the Straits. These results underscore the significance of the Mediterranean's water budget in influencing sea level trends and highlight the complexity of modelling and interpreting decadal sea level changes. The findings suggest that continued monitoring and a better understanding of regional water budgets are crucial for refining future projections and developing effective climate adaptation strategies for the Mediterranean coastal areas.

    Keywords: Mediterranean Sea, Water budget, Decadal variability, Steric sea level, climate adaptation, mean sea level trend, Mediterranean Sea - Eastern

    Received: 29 Jul 2024; Accepted: 03 Jan 2025.

    Copyright: © 2025 Borile, Pinardi, Lyubartsev, Ghani, Navarra, Alessandri, Clementi, Coppini, Mentaschi, Verri, Santos da Costa, Scoccimarro, Misurale, Novellino and Oddo. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.

    * Correspondence: Federica Borile, Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Bologna, Bologna, 40126, Emilia-Romagna, Italy

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