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PERSPECTIVE article
Front. Clim.
Sec. Climate and Decision Making
Volume 6 - 2024 |
doi: 10.3389/fclim.2024.1499765
This article is part of the Research Topic Concept Papers from the World Climate Research Programme: The Future of Climate Research View all 8 articles
Climate extremes and risks: links between climate science and decision-making
Provisionally accepted- 1 Research Unit Sustainability and Climate Risk, Department of Earth System Sciences, University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany
- 2 Centre for International Climate and Environmental Research (CICERO), Oslo, Norway
- 3 UNSW Institute for Climate Risk and Response, Sydney, Australia
- 4 Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes (CLEX), Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
- 5 Climate Change Research Centre, Faculty of Science, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
- 6 NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, United States
- 7 Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain
- 8 Catalan Institution for Research and Advanced Studies (ICREA), Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain
- 9 Southern Regional Center for Space Research, National Institute for Space Research (CRS/INPE), Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil
- 10 Research Unit Sustainability and Climate Risks, Department of Earth System Sciences, University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany
- 11 Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ), Brasília, Brazil
- 12 European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, United Kingdom
- 13 ETH Zürich, Zurich, Zürich, Switzerland
- 14 Center for Climate Physics, Institute for Basic Science, Busan, Republic of Korea
- 15 Pusan National University, Busan, Busan, Republic of Korea
- 16 Joint Institute for Regional Earth System Science and Engineering, College of Physical Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California, United States
- 17 Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands, Netherlands
- 18 Deltares (Netherlands), Delft, Netherlands
- 19 National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom
- 20 Climate Service Center Germany (GERICS), Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany
- 21 Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology, St. James, Barbados
- 22 University of Graz, Graz, Styria, Austria
- 23 Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research (UCAR), Boulder, Colorado, United States
- 24 Goddard Institute for Space Studies (NASA), New York, New York, United States
- 25 Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology, Dhaka, Dhaka, Bangladesh
- 26 University of the West Indies, Mona, Kingston, Jamaica
- 27 World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland
- 28 University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Champaign, Illinois, United States
- 29 Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, University of Victoria, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada
The World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) envisions a future where actionable climate information is universally accessible, supporting decision makers in preparing for and responding to climate change. In this perspective, we advocate for enhancing links between climate science and decision-making through a better and more decision-relevant understanding of climate impacts. The proposed framework comprises three pillars: climate science, impact science, and decision-making, focusing on generating seamless climate information from sub-seasonal, seasonal, decadal to century timescales informed by historical climate events and their impacts. The link between climate science and decision-making has strengthened in recent years, partly owing to undeniable impacts arising from disastrous weather extremes. Enhancing decision-relevant understanding involves utilizing lessons from past extreme events and implementing impact-based early warning systems to improve resilience. Integrated risk assessment and management require a comprehensive approach that encompasses good knowledge about possible impacts, hazard identification, monitoring, and communication of risks while acknowledging uncertainties inherent in climate predictions and projections, but not letting the uncertainty lead to decision paralysis. The importance of data accessibility, especially in the Global South, underscores the need for better coordination and resource allocation. Strategic frameworks should aim to enhance impact-related and open-access climate services around the world. Continuous improvements in predictive modeling and observational data are critical, as is ensuring that climate science remains relevant to decision makers locally and globally. Ultimately, fostering stronger collaborations and dedicated investments to process and tailor climate data will enhance societal preparedness, enabling communities to navigate the complexities of a changing climate effectively.
Keywords: Climate Extremes, climate impacts, Climate risk, decision making, Climate service, Climate Change
Received: 21 Sep 2024; Accepted: 26 Nov 2024.
Copyright: © 2024 Sillmann, Raupach, Findell, Donat, Alves, Alexander, Borchert, Borges de Amorim, Buontempo, Fischer, Franzke, Guan, Haasnoot, Hawkins, Jacob, Mahon, Maraun, Morrison, Poschlod, Ruane, Shampa, Stephenson, van der Wel, Wang, Zhang and Zupanic. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence:
Jana Sillmann, Research Unit Sustainability and Climate Risk, Department of Earth System Sciences, University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany
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