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PERSPECTIVE article

Front. Clim.
Sec. Climate and Decision Making
Volume 6 - 2024 | doi: 10.3389/fclim.2024.1499765
This article is part of the Research Topic Concept Papers from the World Climate Research Programme: The Future of Climate Research View all 8 articles

Climate extremes and risks: links between climate science and decision-making

Provisionally accepted
Jana Sillmann Jana Sillmann 1,2*Tim Raupach Tim Raupach 3,4,5Kirsten L. Findell Kirsten L. Findell 6Markus Donat Markus Donat 7,8Lincoln Muniz Alves Lincoln Muniz Alves 9Lisa Alexander Lisa Alexander 4,5Leonard Borchert Leonard Borchert 10Pablo Borges de Amorim Pablo Borges de Amorim 11Carlo Buontempo Carlo Buontempo 12Erich Markus Fischer Erich Markus Fischer 13Christian L.E. Franzke Christian L.E. Franzke 14,15Bin Guan Bin Guan 16Marjolijn Haasnoot Marjolijn Haasnoot 17,18Ed Hawkins Ed Hawkins 19Daniela Jacob Daniela Jacob 20Roché Mahon Roché Mahon 21Douglas Maraun Douglas Maraun 22Monica Ainhorn Morrison Monica Ainhorn Morrison 23Benjamin Poschlod Benjamin Poschlod 10Alex C Ruane Alex C Ruane 24Shampa Shampa Shampa Shampa 25Tannecia Stephenson Tannecia Stephenson 26Narelle van der Wel Narelle van der Wel 27Zhuo Wang Zhuo Wang 28Xuebin Zhang Xuebin Zhang 29Josipa Zupanic Josipa Zupanic 10
  • 1 Research Unit Sustainability and Climate Risk, Department of Earth System Sciences, University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany
  • 2 Centre for International Climate and Environmental Research (CICERO), Oslo, Norway
  • 3 UNSW Institute for Climate Risk and Response, Sydney, Australia
  • 4 Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes (CLEX), Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
  • 5 Climate Change Research Centre, Faculty of Science, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
  • 6 NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, United States
  • 7 Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain
  • 8 Catalan Institution for Research and Advanced Studies (ICREA), Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain
  • 9 Southern Regional Center for Space Research, National Institute for Space Research (CRS/INPE), Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil
  • 10 Research Unit Sustainability and Climate Risks, Department of Earth System Sciences, University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany
  • 11 Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ), Brasília, Brazil
  • 12 European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, United Kingdom
  • 13 ETH Zürich, Zurich, Zürich, Switzerland
  • 14 Center for Climate Physics, Institute for Basic Science, Busan, Republic of Korea
  • 15 Pusan National University, Busan, Busan, Republic of Korea
  • 16 Joint Institute for Regional Earth System Science and Engineering, College of Physical Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California, United States
  • 17 Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands, Netherlands
  • 18 Deltares (Netherlands), Delft, Netherlands
  • 19 National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom
  • 20 Climate Service Center Germany (GERICS), Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany
  • 21 Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology, St. James, Barbados
  • 22 University of Graz, Graz, Styria, Austria
  • 23 Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research (UCAR), Boulder, Colorado, United States
  • 24 Goddard Institute for Space Studies (NASA), New York, New York, United States
  • 25 Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology, Dhaka, Dhaka, Bangladesh
  • 26 University of the West Indies, Mona, Kingston, Jamaica
  • 27 World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland
  • 28 University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Champaign, Illinois, United States
  • 29 Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, University of Victoria, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada

The final, formatted version of the article will be published soon.

    The World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) envisions a future where actionable climate information is universally accessible, supporting decision makers in preparing for and responding to climate change. In this perspective, we advocate for enhancing links between climate science and decision-making through a better and more decision-relevant understanding of climate impacts. The proposed framework comprises three pillars: climate science, impact science, and decision-making, focusing on generating seamless climate information from sub-seasonal, seasonal, decadal to century timescales informed by historical climate events and their impacts. The link between climate science and decision-making has strengthened in recent years, partly owing to undeniable impacts arising from disastrous weather extremes. Enhancing decision-relevant understanding involves utilizing lessons from past extreme events and implementing impact-based early warning systems to improve resilience. Integrated risk assessment and management require a comprehensive approach that encompasses good knowledge about possible impacts, hazard identification, monitoring, and communication of risks while acknowledging uncertainties inherent in climate predictions and projections, but not letting the uncertainty lead to decision paralysis. The importance of data accessibility, especially in the Global South, underscores the need for better coordination and resource allocation. Strategic frameworks should aim to enhance impact-related and open-access climate services around the world. Continuous improvements in predictive modeling and observational data are critical, as is ensuring that climate science remains relevant to decision makers locally and globally. Ultimately, fostering stronger collaborations and dedicated investments to process and tailor climate data will enhance societal preparedness, enabling communities to navigate the complexities of a changing climate effectively.

    Keywords: Climate Extremes, climate impacts, Climate risk, decision making, Climate service, Climate Change

    Received: 21 Sep 2024; Accepted: 26 Nov 2024.

    Copyright: © 2024 Sillmann, Raupach, Findell, Donat, Alves, Alexander, Borchert, Borges de Amorim, Buontempo, Fischer, Franzke, Guan, Haasnoot, Hawkins, Jacob, Mahon, Maraun, Morrison, Poschlod, Ruane, Shampa, Stephenson, van der Wel, Wang, Zhang and Zupanic. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.

    * Correspondence: Jana Sillmann, Research Unit Sustainability and Climate Risk, Department of Earth System Sciences, University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany

    Disclaimer: All claims expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of their affiliated organizations, or those of the publisher, the editors and the reviewers. Any product that may be evaluated in this article or claim that may be made by its manufacturer is not guaranteed or endorsed by the publisher.