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REVIEW article

Front. Clim.
Sec. Predictions and Projections
Volume 6 - 2024 | doi: 10.3389/fclim.2024.1453726

Review: Climate change impacts on hydrology and water resources in East Africa considering CMIP3, CMIP5, and CMIP6

Provisionally accepted
Charles Onyutha Charles Onyutha *
  • Kyambogo University, Kampala, Uganda

The final, formatted version of the article will be published soon.

    Climate change impacts on the hydrology and water resources in East Africa require proper planning of regional adaptation measures. Past studies on the subject matter tended to focus on catchment instead of regional scale. To support actionable policy regarding regional planning of water resources management, this paper reviewed studies conducted in East Africa based on CMIP3, CMIP5, and CMIP6. There were 14, 29, and 4 catchments across the study area studied using climate models from CMIP3, CMIP5, and CMIP6, respectively. Future temperature of East Africa will increase by about 2.6°C on average with ranges 0.17 -7 °C. Future precipitation over East Africa will increase by 8.5% on average.Changes in discharge based on CMIP3, CMIP5, and CMIP6 varied from -25.3 to +60.5%, -42.5 to 129%, and -23.4 to 69%, respectively. Ensemble means of the changes in discharge across the study area based on CMIP3, CMIP5, and CMIP6 were found to be 25.2, 19.2, 19.1%, respectively. Future peak river discharge in the study area will increase by 8% on average. These results are important for planning regional climate change adaptation across East Africa.

    Keywords: Climate change impacts, Hydrology and Water Resources, East Africa, CMIP phases (CMIP3, CMIP5, CMIP6), Bias Correction

    Received: 23 Jun 2024; Accepted: 03 Sep 2024.

    Copyright: © 2024 Onyutha. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.

    * Correspondence: Charles Onyutha, Kyambogo University, Kampala, Uganda

    Disclaimer: All claims expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of their affiliated organizations, or those of the publisher, the editors and the reviewers. Any product that may be evaluated in this article or claim that may be made by its manufacturer is not guaranteed or endorsed by the publisher.