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ORIGINAL RESEARCH article

Front. Clim.
Sec. Predictions and Projections
Volume 6 - 2024 | doi: 10.3389/fclim.2024.1449633
This article is part of the Research Topic Coastal Climate Monitoring and Downscaling for Adaptation Planning in the Adriatic Sea View all 10 articles

Climate marine indicators in the Adriatic Sea

Provisionally accepted
Vladimir S. Costa Vladimir S. Costa 1*Jacopo Alessandri Jacopo Alessandri 2Giorgia Verri Giorgia Verri 1Lorenzo Mentaschi Lorenzo Mentaschi 3Roberta Guerra Roberta Guerra 3Nadia Pinardi Nadia Pinardi 2
  • 1 Foundation Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC), Lecce, Italy
  • 2 Interdepartmental Research Centre for Environmental Sciences, University of Bologna, Bologna, Emilia-Romagna, Italy
  • 3 Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Bologna, Bologna, Emilia-Romagna, Italy

The final, formatted version of the article will be published soon.

    This research seeks to categorize and ascertain the primary marine climatic indicators within the complex Adriatic Sea area. Employing subregional climate downscaling models with resolution on the scale of a few kilometers, incorporating atmospheric, oceanic, and hydrological coupled models, the study scrutinizes historical baseline simulations (from 1992 to 2011) and future projections (from 2031 to 2050) under the RCP8.5 scenario. The chosen climate indicators are related to Sea Surface Temperature (SST), Marine Heat Waves (MHWs), Brunt-Väisälä frequency, Sea Level Rise (SLR), and Ocean Heat Content (OHC). The main results show the positive trend in SST and its correlation to circulation structures. It is noticeable that the historical period reveals a greater trend compared to the projection period, being 0.04°C/year and 0.022°C/year respectively. The OHC shows the expected positive trend with a maximum increase in the southern Adriatic Gyre. The stability of the water column, as identified by the Brunt-Väisälä frequency values, is decreased in the shallow northern Adriatic due to the river discharge decrease while it is increased in the mid-depth water column of the central and southern regions. The number and amplitude of MHW increases especially if referenced to the historical period and finally the rate of total sea level rise shows a consistent decrease in the projection period due to compensating effects between warming and salting and the changing water budget.

    Keywords: climate change adaptation, Adriatic Sea dynamics, Marine Climate Indicators, Regional Climate Downscaling, climate change impact

    Received: 15 Jun 2024; Accepted: 21 Oct 2024.

    Copyright: © 2024 Costa, Alessandri, Verri, Mentaschi, Guerra and Pinardi. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.

    * Correspondence: Vladimir S. Costa, Foundation Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC), Lecce, Italy

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