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ORIGINAL RESEARCH article

Front. Clim.
Sec. Climate Services
Volume 6 - 2024 | doi: 10.3389/fclim.2024.1441647
This article is part of the Research Topic Climate Services for Africa View all 4 articles

Practical application of real-time sub-seasonal monsoon onset forecasting and monitoring for decision-making

Provisionally accepted
Elisabeth M. Thompson Elisabeth M. Thompson 1*Caroline M. Wainwright Caroline M. Wainwright 2Linda C. Hirons Linda C. Hirons 3,4Steven J. Woolnough Steven J. Woolnough 3,4
  • 1 Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom
  • 2 Cardiff University, Cardiff, United Kingdom
  • 3 University of Reading, Reading, England, United Kingdom
  • 4 National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Leeds, United Kingdom

The final, formatted version of the article will be published soon.

    Skilful monsoon onset forecasts are highly sought after in West Africa, due to the importance of monsoon onset for supporting agriculture, disease prevalence and energy provision. With the subseasonal timescale bridging the gap between weather and seasonal forecasts, sub-seasonal forecasts have the potential to provide useful decision-making information about the onset of the monsoon rainfall. This study explores sub-seasonal monsoon onset forecasts over Ghana using the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) operational ensemble prediction systems. Three commonly used methods for defining monsoon onset are compared, and the benefits, challenges, and potential of real-time, sub-seasonal onset forecasting using these methods are examined . Monsoon onset forecasting at sub-seasonal timescales, and associated decision-making with shorter-term information can be challenging due to the typically single occurrence of rainfall onset within a season. Sub-seasonal forecasts of monsoon onset are shown to be particularly useful for confirming onset occurrence, at least 1-2 weeks earlier than when observations are used. Earlier confirmation of monsoon onset provided by sub-seasonal forecasts, has the potential for earlier decision-making and action that would positively impact sectors such as agriculture.

    Keywords: sub-seasonal, Forecasting, decision-making, onset, Monsoon, rainfall, Ghana, West Africa

    Received: 31 May 2024; Accepted: 07 Nov 2024.

    Copyright: © 2024 Thompson, Wainwright, Hirons and Woolnough. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.

    * Correspondence: Elisabeth M. Thompson, Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom

    Disclaimer: All claims expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of their affiliated organizations, or those of the publisher, the editors and the reviewers. Any product that may be evaluated in this article or claim that may be made by its manufacturer is not guaranteed or endorsed by the publisher.