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REVIEW article

Front. Clim.
Sec. Climate Adaptation
Volume 6 - 2024 | doi: 10.3389/fclim.2024.1415070

Scenario planning for climate adaptation and management: a high-level synthesis and standardization of methodology

Provisionally accepted
Lunia E. Oriol Lunia E. Oriol *Jenna Jorns Jenna Jorns *Kimberly Channell Kimberly Channell Richard B. Rood Richard B. Rood *
  • University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, United States

The final, formatted version of the article will be published soon.

    Scenario planning is a tool used to explore a set of plausible futures shaped by specific trajectories. When applied in participatory contexts, it is known as participatory scenario planning (PSP), which has grown in its usage for planning, policy, and decision-making within the context of climate change. There has been no high-level synthesis of systematic reviews covering the overall state and direction of PSP for climate adaptation and management. We draw from four systematic reviews on PSP published between 2015-2021 to substantiate the credibility of the process and identify a set of standard practices to make PSP a more accessible and usable tool for not only researchers, but policymakers, practitioners, and other end users who may benefit from PSP. We summarize and synthesize the range of PSP processes and characteristics, highlighting four common trends that provoke additional inquiry: PSP's contribution to social learning and bias, the varying use of quantitative information in scenario development, issues related to carrying out monitoring and evaluation, and the varying completion of practices recommended by established PSP literature. We propose four processes as integral to maximizing PSP's usability for end users and recommend these areas for further study: identifying social imbalances throughout the PSP process, recognizing bias as inherent to PSP, explicitly addressing, and incorporating uncertainty, and allocating resources for monitoring and evaluation.

    Keywords: climate adaptation, Methodological insights, uncertainty, Scenario planning, scenarios

    Received: 09 Apr 2024; Accepted: 12 Jul 2024.

    Copyright: © 2024 Oriol, Jorns, Channell and Rood. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.

    * Correspondence:
    Lunia E. Oriol, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, 48109, Michigan, United States
    Jenna Jorns, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, 48109, Michigan, United States
    Richard B. Rood, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, 48109, Michigan, United States

    Disclaimer: All claims expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of their affiliated organizations, or those of the publisher, the editors and the reviewers. Any product that may be evaluated in this article or claim that may be made by its manufacturer is not guaranteed or endorsed by the publisher.