AUTHOR=Cohen-Shields Naomi , Sun Tianyi , Hamburg Steven P. , Ocko Ilissa B. 

TITLE=Distortion of sectoral roles in climate change threatens climate goals

JOURNAL=Frontiers in Climate

VOLUME=5

YEAR=2023

URL=https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/climate/articles/10.3389/fclim.2023.1163557

DOI=10.3389/fclim.2023.1163557

ISSN=2624-9553

ABSTRACT=<p>The longstanding method for reporting greenhouse gas emissions—carbon dioxide equivalence (CO<sub>2</sub>e)—systematically underestimates methane-dominated economic sectors' contributions to warming in the coming decades. This is because it only calculates the warming impact of a pulse of emissions over a 100-year period. For short-lived climate forcers that mostly influence the climate for a decade or two, like methane, this method masks their near-term potency. Assessing the impacts of future greenhouse gas emissions using a simple climate model reveals that midcentury warming contributions of sectors dominated by methane—agriculture, fossil fuel production and distribution, and waste—are two times higher than estimated using CO<sub>2</sub>e. The CO<sub>2</sub>e method underemphasizes the importance of reducing emissions from these sectors, and risks misaligning emissions targets with desired temperature outcomes. It is essential to supplement CO<sub>2</sub>e-derived insights with approaches that convey climate impacts of ongoing emissions over multiple timescales, and to never rely exclusively on CO<sub>2</sub>e.</p>