AUTHOR=Smith Doug M. , Gillett Nathan P. , Simpson Isla R. , Athanasiadis Panos J. , Baehr Johanna , Bethke Ingo , Bilge Tarkan A. , Bonnet Rémy , Boucher Olivier , Findell Kirsten L. , Gastineau Guillaume , Gualdi Silvio , Hermanson Leon , Leung L. Ruby , Mignot Juliette , Müller Wolfgang A. , Osprey Scott , Otterå Odd Helge , Persad Geeta G. , Scaife Adam A. , Schmidt Gavin A. , Shiogama Hideo , Sutton Rowan T. , Swingedouw Didier , Yang Shuting , Zhou Tianjun , Ziehn Tilo TITLE=Attribution of multi-annual to decadal changes in the climate system: The Large Ensemble Single Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (LESFMIP) JOURNAL=Frontiers in Climate VOLUME=4 YEAR=2022 URL=https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/climate/articles/10.3389/fclim.2022.955414 DOI=10.3389/fclim.2022.955414 ISSN=2624-9553 ABSTRACT=

Multi-annual to decadal changes in climate are accompanied by changes in extreme events that cause major impacts on society and severe challenges for adaptation. Early warnings of such changes are now potentially possible through operational decadal predictions. However, improved understanding of the causes of regional changes in climate on these timescales is needed both to attribute recent events and to gain further confidence in forecasts. Here we document the Large Ensemble Single Forcing Model Intercomparison Project that will address this need through coordinated model experiments enabling the impacts of different external drivers to be isolated. We highlight the need to account for model errors and propose an attribution approach that exploits differences between models to diagnose the real-world situation and overcomes potential errors in atmospheric circulation changes. The experiments and analysis proposed here will provide substantial improvements to our ability to understand near-term changes in climate and will support the World Climate Research Program Lighthouse Activity on Explaining and Predicting Earth System Change.