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ORIGINAL RESEARCH article

Front. Cell. Infect. Microbiol.
Sec. Clinical Microbiology
Volume 14 - 2024 | doi: 10.3389/fcimb.2024.1375298

The risk factors and prediction model for postoperative pneumonia after craniotomy

Provisionally accepted
Bingbing Xiang Bingbing Xiang 1*Chunyan Li Chunyan Li 1*Mingliang Yi Mingliang Yi 1*Hong Yin Hong Yin 1*Shun Wang Shun Wang 2*Yiran Liu Yiran Liu 1*
  • 1 Chengdu Fifth People's Hospital, Chengdu, Sichuan Province, China
  • 2 First Affiliated Hospital of Chengdu Medical College, Chengdu, Sichuan Province, China

The final, formatted version of the article will be published soon.

    Background: Craniotomy is highly susceptible to postoperative pneumonia, which significantly impacts the outcomes of patients undergoing such procedures. Our study aims to examine the risk factors associated with postoperative pneumonia and establish a predictive model with a nomogram to assess this risk.We conducted a matched 1:1 case-control study involving 831 adult patients undergoing craniotomy at our hospital. Cases consisted of patients who developed postoperative pneumonia within 30 days after surgery, as defined by consensus criteria. Controls were randomly selected from a pool of eligible patients.The overall incidence rate of postoperative pneumonia is 12.39% in a total of 831 surgeries, which associated with unfavorable outcomes. Gram-negative bacteria were found to be the most common causative agents and approximately 27.94% of cases attributed to multi-drug resistant strains. The logistic regression analysis revealed five independent risk factors, as follows: smoking history, surgical duration, postoperative albumin, unplanned re-operation, and deep vein catheterization. A risk prediction model was derived and a nomogram was constructed. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test yielded X 2 =3.871 (P=0.869), and the receiver operator characteristic curve analysis demonstrated an area under the curve of 0.898 (P<0.05), with a sensitivity of 79.6% and a specificity of 85.4%, indicating excellent model fit and predictive performance. In addition, the C-index of the nomogram model was 0.898(95%CI, 0.853~0.941). The calibration curves of the nomogram model showed p-values of 0.797 and the Brier scores were 0.127. The analysis of the clinical decision curve showed that the nomograph model had high clinical application value. Conclusions: Postoperative pneumonia patients after craniotomy exhibits distinct pathogen distribution and is strongly associated with unfavorable outcomes. The risk prediction model developed in this study demonstrates a good fitting degree and predictive performance. The constructed nomogram model is objective, specific, and easily applicable in clinical practice.

    Keywords: Craniotomy, Postoperative pneumonia, Risk factors, Prediction model, pathogens

    Received: 29 Jan 2024; Accepted: 31 Oct 2024.

    Copyright: © 2024 Xiang, Li, Yi, Yin, Wang and Liu. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.

    * Correspondence:
    Bingbing Xiang, Chengdu Fifth People's Hospital, Chengdu, Sichuan Province, China
    Chunyan Li, Chengdu Fifth People's Hospital, Chengdu, Sichuan Province, China
    Mingliang Yi, Chengdu Fifth People's Hospital, Chengdu, Sichuan Province, China
    Hong Yin, Chengdu Fifth People's Hospital, Chengdu, Sichuan Province, China
    Shun Wang, First Affiliated Hospital of Chengdu Medical College, Chengdu, Sichuan Province, China
    Yiran Liu, Chengdu Fifth People's Hospital, Chengdu, Sichuan Province, China

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