To analyze the risk factors of in-stent restenosis (ISR) after the first implantation of drug-eluting stent (DES) patients with coronary heart disease (CHD) and to establish a nomogram model to predict the risk of ISR.
This study retrospectively analyzed the clinical data of patients with CHD who underwent DES treatment for the first time at the Fourth Affiliated Hospital of Zhejiang University School of Medicine from January 2016 to June 2020. Patients were divided into an ISR group and a non-ISR (N-ISR) group according to the results of coronary angiography. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression analysis was performed on the clinical variables to screen out the characteristic variables. Then we constructed the nomogram prediction model using conditional multivariate logistic regression analysis combined with the clinical variables selected in the LASSO regression analysis. Finally, the decision curve analysis, clinical impact curve, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, and calibration curve were used to evaluate the nomogram prediction model's clinical applicability, validity, discrimination, and consistency. And we double-validate the prediction model using ten-fold cross-validation and bootstrap validation.
In this study, hypertension, HbA1c, mean stent diameter, total stent length, thyroxine, and fibrinogen were all predictive factors for ISR. We successfully constructed a nomogram prediction model using these variables to quantify the risk of ISR. The AUC value of the nomogram prediction model was 0.806 (95%CI: 0.739–0.873), indicating that the model had a good discriminative ability for ISR. The high quality of the calibration curve of the model demonstrated the strong consistency of the model. Moreover, the DCA and CIC curve showed the model's high clinical applicability and effectiveness.
Hypertension, HbA1c, mean stent diameter, total stent length, thyroxine, and fibrinogen are important predictors for ISR. The nomogram prediction model can better identify the high-risk population of ISR and provide practical decision-making information for the follow-up intervention in the high-risk population.