The high prevalence of cardiovascular diseases globally causes a great social burden and much individual suffering. The effective recognition of high-risk subjects is critical for primary prevention in the general population. In the elderly cohort, anthropometric measurements may have different prognostic values. Our study aimed to find convincing anthropometric measures to supplement conventional risk factors for major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs) in the elderly cohort.
A total of 1,576 elderly participants (44.5% male, aged 72.0 ± 6.0 years) recruited into the Northern Shanghai Study (2014–2015) were followed up between 2016 and 2017. Following the standard guideline for cardiovascular risk evaluation, all conventional cardiovascular risk factors were assessed. The body measures were made up of body weight, body height, hip circumference, waist circumference, and middle-upper arm circumference (MUAC). Organ damage (OD) markers for cardiac, vascular, and renal diseases will be evaluated by the standardized methods.
After the average 571 (±135) days of follow-up, a total of 90 MACEs (5.7%) occurred, i.e., 13 non-fatal myocardial infarction, 68 non-fatal stroke, and 9 cardiovascular deaths. Univariable COX survival analysis revealed that only MUAC could validly predict MACEs among anthropometric characters [adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 0.89; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.82–0.96]. In Kaplan-Meier analysis, the group of high MUAC showed the lowest MACE risk (log-rank
Despite being associated with a higher rate of cardiac damage, higher MUAC independently and significantly conferred protection against the MACE, in the elderly cohort.