AUTHOR=Wang Lei , Zhao Yun-Tao
TITLE=Development and Validation of a Prediction Model for Irreversible Worsened Cardiac Function in Patients With Acute Decompensated Heart Failure
JOURNAL=Frontiers in Cardiovascular Medicine
VOLUME=8
YEAR=2021
URL=https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/cardiovascular-medicine/articles/10.3389/fcvm.2021.785587
DOI=10.3389/fcvm.2021.785587
ISSN=2297-055X
ABSTRACT=Background: Irreversible worsening of cardiac function is an adverse event associated with significant morbidity among patients with acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF). We aimed to develop a parsimonious model which is simple to use in clinical settings for the prediction of the risk of irreversible worsening of cardiac function.
Methods: A total of 871 ADHF patients were enrolled in this study. Data for each patient were collected from the medical records. Irreversible worsening of cardiac function included cardiac death within 30-days of patient hospitalization, implantation of a left ventricular assistance device, or emergency heart transplantation. We performed LASSO regression for variable selection to derive a multivariable logistic regression model. Five candidate predictors were selected to derive the final prediction model. The prediction model was verified using C-statistics, calibration curve, and decision curve.
Results: Irreversible worsening of cardiac function occurred in 7.8% of the patients. Advanced age, NYHA class, high blood urea nitrogen, hypoalbuminemia, and vasopressor use were its strongest predictors. The prediction model showed good discrimination C-statistic value, 0.866 (95% CI, 0.817–0.907), which indicated good identical calibration and clinical efficacy.
Conclusion: In this study, we developed a prediction model and nomogram to estimate the risk of irreversible worsening of cardiac function among ADHF patients. The findings may provide a reference for clinical physicians for detection of irreversible worsening of cardiac function and enable its prompt management.