AUTHOR=Tokodi Márton , Behon Anett , Merkel Eperke Dóra , Kovács Attila , Tősér Zoltán , Sárkány András , Csákvári Máté , Lakatos Bálint Károly , Schwertner Walter Richard , Kosztin Annamária , Merkely Béla
TITLE=Sex-Specific Patterns of Mortality Predictors Among Patients Undergoing Cardiac Resynchronization Therapy: A Machine Learning Approach
JOURNAL=Frontiers in Cardiovascular Medicine
VOLUME=8
YEAR=2021
URL=https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/cardiovascular-medicine/articles/10.3389/fcvm.2021.611055
DOI=10.3389/fcvm.2021.611055
ISSN=2297-055X
ABSTRACT=Background: The relative importance of variables explaining sex-related differences in outcomes is scarcely explored in patients undergoing cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT). We sought to implement and evaluate machine learning (ML) algorithms for the prediction of 1- and 3-year all-cause mortality in CRT patients. We also aimed to assess the sex-specific differences in predictors of mortality utilizing ML.
Methods: Using a retrospective registry of 2,191 CRT patients, ML models were implemented in 6 partially overlapping patient subsets (all patients, females, or males with 1- or 3-year follow-up). Each cohort was randomly split into training (80%) and test sets (20%). After hyperparameter tuning in the training sets, the best performing algorithm was evaluated in the test sets. Model discrimination was quantified using the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curves (AUC). The most important predictors were identified using the permutation feature importances method.
Results: Conditional inference random forest exhibited the best performance with AUCs of 0.728 (0.645–0.802) and 0.732 (0.681–0.784) for the prediction of 1- and 3-year mortality, respectively. Etiology of heart failure, NYHA class, left ventricular ejection fraction, and QRS morphology had higher predictive power, whereas hemoglobin was less important in females compared to males. The importance of atrial fibrillation and age increased, while the importance of serum creatinine decreased from 1- to 3-year follow-up in both sexes.
Conclusions: Using ML techniques in combination with easily obtainable clinical features, our models effectively predicted 1- and 3-year all-cause mortality in CRT patients. Sex-specific patterns of predictors were identified, showing a dynamic variation over time.