Research on Risk Assessment Model of Urban Dense Cable Channel Based on Fuzzy Mathematics

Yongjie Nie ¹ Daoyuan Chen ¹ Shuai Zheng ^2* Xiaowei Xu ¹ Xilian Wang ² Zhensheng Wu ²

• ¹ Yunnan Power Grid Co. Ltd, Wenshan, Yunnan, China
• ² Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing, China

With the acceleration of urbanization, the safe and stable operation of urban dense cable channels is of great importance to the guarantee of urban power and communication systems. Cable channel faces many kinds of risk sources, which brings great challenges to urban power supply. Most existing risk assessment methods are based on accurate mathematical models, which require clear and deterministic boundaries of assessment indicators, and are difficult to deal with the fuzziness and uncertainty of cable channel risk factors, such as the degree of aging of cable insulation is difficult to accurately define, and the degree of influence of external environmental factors cannot be simply quantified. This paper presents a risk assessment model of urban dense cable passage based on fuzzy mathematics. The model combines membership function with fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to analyze and classify the risk factors of urban dense cable passage. Eight risk factors were identified, including external damage, facility defects and non-standard cable laying, and the importance of each factor was evaluated by constructing membership matrix based on historical data and expert scoring method. The typical dense cable trench and cable tunnel in actual operation in a region of China Southern Power Grid are analyzed, and the risk level is calculated by MATLAB 2021a programming. The results show that the model can effectively assess the level of risk and clearly show the impact of individual risk factors on the overall risk. For example, in the cable trench risk assessment, it is accurately identified that external damage and cable overheating risk factors lead to moderate risk, and the remaining six factors are low risk; In the cable tunnel assessment, the corresponding risk level of each risk factor is also accurately determined. This indicates that the evaluation method based on fuzzy mathematics can not only quantify the uncertainty of risk factors, but also improve the rationality of the evaluation results, and provide a scientific decision basis for the safety management and maintenance of cable channels, which has significant advantages over traditional evaluation methods.