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ORIGINAL RESEARCH article

Front. Built Environ.
Sec. Earthquake Engineering
Volume 10 - 2024 | doi: 10.3389/fbuil.2024.1499848
This article is part of the Research Topic Earthquake and Stochastic Environment: From earthquake observation to structural seismic resistance View all articles

Understanding the earthquake potential to anticipate better and prepare for possible future major earthquakes

Provisionally accepted
Wahyu Triyoso Wahyu Triyoso 1*Widjo Kongko Widjo Kongko 2Gegar S Prasetya Gegar S Prasetya 3
  • 1 Department of Geophysical Engineering, Faculty of Mining and Petroleum Engineering, Bandung Institute of Technology, Bandung, Indonesia
  • 2 National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN), Bogor, Jakarta, Indonesia
  • 3 Ikatan Ahli Tsunami Indonesia (IATSI), Jakarta, Indonesia

The final, formatted version of the article will be published soon.

    This study re-examines a broader region, building upon findings of relative quiescence in the Sumatran subduction zone and off-coast southern West Java, utilizing the modified probability gain (mG) concept. By comparing pre-and post-quiescence seismicity patterns, we identify potential earthquake source areas and assess associated tsunami hazards. We propose a novel combined model integrating normalized seismicity smoothing, geodetic moment rate, and mG values to more accurately characterize earthquake occurrence likelihood. This model, coupled with a robust seismicity rate model, enables us to understand better a spatiotemporal earthquake potential hierarchy model for refined seismic hazard assessment. Our results align with prior studies indicating relative seismic quiescence in specific zones. Additionally, we identify novel potential source regions for significant future earthquakes. We provide estimates of potential tsunami heights and underscore the importance of accounting for multiple source areas and the effects of static stress loading. Examining pre-and post-event expectations, we aim to deepen our understanding of significant earthquake events in the Sumatran Subduction Zone and extract valuable lessons for enhancing disaster mitigation strategies. This study contributes significantly to a more comprehensive understanding of earthquake and tsunami hazards in the region, providing crucial insights for informed disaster preparedness and mitigation efforts.

    Keywords: SUBDUCTION ZONE, quiescence, probability gain, potential earthquake & tsunami source, Seismic mitigation

    Received: 21 Sep 2024; Accepted: 02 Dec 2024.

    Copyright: © 2024 Triyoso, Kongko and Prasetya. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.

    * Correspondence: Wahyu Triyoso, Department of Geophysical Engineering, Faculty of Mining and Petroleum Engineering, Bandung Institute of Technology, Bandung, Indonesia

    Disclaimer: All claims expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of their affiliated organizations, or those of the publisher, the editors and the reviewers. Any product that may be evaluated in this article or claim that may be made by its manufacturer is not guaranteed or endorsed by the publisher.