Skip to main content

ORIGINAL RESEARCH article

Front. Astron. Space Sci.
Sec. Space Physics
Volume 11 - 2024 | doi: 10.3389/fspas.2024.1354615
This article is part of the Research Topic Uncertainty Quantification And Model Validation In Space Weather Modeling View all articles

Extended Metric Validation of Semi-Physical Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) Conductance Model on Field-Aligned Current Estimations

Provisionally accepted
Erika Hathaway Erika Hathaway 1*Agnit Mukhopadhyay Agnit Mukhopadhyay 1Michael W. Liemohn Michael W. Liemohn 1Timothy Keebler Timothy Keebler 1Brian Anderson Brian Anderson 2Sarah Vines Sarah Vines 2Robin J. Barnes Robin J. Barnes 2
  • 1 Department of Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering, College of Engineering, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, United States
  • 2 Applied Physics Laboratory, Johns Hopkins University, Laurel, Maryland, United States

The final, formatted version of the article will be published soon.

    A detailed metric study on the 'Galaxy 15' (April 2010) space weather event is conducted to validate MAGNIT, a semi-physical auroral ionospheric conductance model characterizing four precipitation sources, against AMPERE measurements via field aligned current (FAC) characteristics. As part of this study, comparative performance of three ionosphere electrodynamic specifications involving auroral conductance models MAGNIT, RLM (empirical), and CMEE (empirical) within the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) are demonstrated. Overall MAGNIT exhibits marginally improved predictions; root mean square error values in upward and downward FACs of MAGNIT predictions compared to AMPERE data begin smaller than CMEE and RIM by ∼12.7% and ∼6.24% before the storm, ∼4.52% and ∼2.13% better during the main phase, ∼1.98% and ∼1.27% worse during the second minimum, and better by ∼1.84% and ∼1.49% by the beginning of the recovery. In all three model configurations, the dusk and night magnetic local time (MLT) sectors over-predict throughout the storm, while the day and dawn MLT sectors under-predict in response to IMF conditions. Besides accuracy and bias, similar results and conclusions are drawn from additional metrics including in the categories of correlation, precision, extremes, and skill, and recommendations are made for best performing model configuration in each metric category. Visual data-model comparisons conducted by studying FAC location and latitude/MLT spread throughout various phases of the storm suggest that the spatial extent of the FACs are captured relatively well in the nightside auroral oval, unlike the day-side. The spread in latitude of the FACs matches previous literature on other model performances. This information on auroral precipitation sources and its weight on FACs, and metrics from model-data comparisons, can be used to modify MAGNIT settings to optimize SWMF model performance.

    Keywords: model validation, SWMF, Space weather, auroral conductance, field-aligned currents, Ionosphere electrodynamics, aurora, Space Weather Prediction

    Received: 12 Dec 2023; Accepted: 17 Jul 2024.

    Copyright: © 2024 Hathaway, Mukhopadhyay, Liemohn, Keebler, Anderson, Vines and Barnes. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.

    * Correspondence: Erika Hathaway, Department of Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering, College of Engineering, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, United States

    Disclaimer: All claims expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of their affiliated organizations, or those of the publisher, the editors and the reviewers. Any product that may be evaluated in this article or claim that may be made by its manufacturer is not guaranteed or endorsed by the publisher.