Early Diagnosis of Autism Across Developmental Stages Through Scalable and Interpretable Ensemble Model

Nasirul Mumenin¹Maisha Mumtaz Rahman²Mohammad Abu Yousuf³Farzan M. Noori^4*Md Zia Uddin⁵

• ¹Bangladesh University of Business and Technology, Dhaka, Dhaka, Bangladesh
• ²Islamic University of Technology, Dhaka, Bangladesh
• ³Jahangirnagar University, Dhaka, Dhaka, Bangladesh
• ⁴University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
• ⁵SINTEF, Trondheim, Sør-Trøndelag, Norway

Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) is a multifaceted neurodevelopmental condition that challenges early diagnosis due to its diverse manifestations across different developmental stages. Timely and accurate detection is essential to enable interventions that significantly enhance developmental outcomes. This study introduces a robust and interpretable machine learning framework to diagnose ASD using questionnaire data. The proposed framework leverages a stacked ensemble model, combining Random Forest (RF), Extra Tree (ET), and CatBoost (CB) as base classifiers, with an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) serving as the meta-classifier. The methodology addresses class imbalance using Safe-Level SMOTE, dimensionality reduction via Principal Component Analysis (PCA), and feature selection using Mutual Information and Pearson correlation. Evaluation on publicly available datasets representing toddlers, children, adolescents, adults, and a merged dataset (Combining children, adolescents, and adults dataset)demonstrates high diagnostic accuracy, achieving 99.86%, 99.68%, 98.17%, 99.89%, and 96.96%, respectively. Comparative analysis with standard machine learning models underscores the superior performance of the proposed framework. SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) were used to interpret feature importance, while Monte Carlo Dropout (MCD) quantified uncertainty in predictions. This framework provides a scalable, interpretable, and reliable solution for ASD screening across diverse populations and developmental stages.