AUTHOR=Moore Sharon , Radunskaya Ami , Zollinger Elizabeth , Grant Kathleen A. , Gonzales Steven , Baker Erich J. TITLE=Time for a Drink? A Mathematical Model of Non-human Primate Alcohol Consumption JOURNAL=Frontiers in Applied Mathematics and Statistics VOLUME=5 YEAR=2019 URL=https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/applied-mathematics-and-statistics/articles/10.3389/fams.2019.00006 DOI=10.3389/fams.2019.00006 ISSN=2297-4687 ABSTRACT=

We simulate a non-human primate's alcohol drinking pattern in order to better understand temporal patterning of alcoholic drinks that can lead to the excessive intakes associated with alcohol use disorder. A stochastic mathematical model of alcohol consumption pattern is developed, where model parameters are calibrated to an individual monkey's drinking history. The model predicts a time series that simulates a monkey's alcohol intake in time, and we analyze this drinking pattern to understand the variations in day and night drinking, the lengths of drinks (intake in 5 or more consecutive secs), and lengths of bouts (1 or more drinks per 5 min occasion). This time series can predict a lifetime categorical drinking level (light, binge, heavy, or very heavy), thus correlating an individual monkey's parameters with distinct long term drinking classifications.