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ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Pharmacol.
Sec. Experimental Pharmacology and Drug Discovery
Volume 15 - 2024 |
doi: 10.3389/fphar.2024.1486346
This article is part of the Research Topic Morphological Changes in Immune Cells for Precision Sepsis Treatment View all 3 articles
Predicting intra-abdominal candidiasis in elderly septic patients using machine learning based on lymphocyte subtyping: A prospective cohort study
Provisionally acceptedObjective: Intra-abdominal candidiasis (IAC) is difficult to predict in elderly septic patients with intra-abdominal infection (IAI). This study aimed to develop and validate a nomogram based on lymphocyte subtyping and clinical factors for the early and rapid prediction of IAC in elderly septic patients.: A prospective cohort study of 284 consecutive elderly patients diagnosed with sepsis and IAI was performed. We assessed the clinical characteristics and parameters of lymphocyte subtyping at the onset of IAI. A machine-learning random forest model was used to select important variables, and multivariate logistic regression was used to analyze the factors influencing IAC. A nomogram model was constructed, and the discrimination, calibration, and clinical effectiveness of the model were verified. Results: According to the results of the random forest and multivariate analyses, gastrointestinal perforation, renal replacement therapy (RRT), T-cell count, CD28+CD8+ T-cell count and CD38+CD8+ T-cell count were independent predictors of IAC. Using the above parameters to establish a nomogram, the area under the curve (AUC) values of the nomogram in the training and testing cohorts were 0.840 (95%CI 0.778-0.902) and 0.783 (95%CI 0.682-0.883), respectively. The AUC in the training cohort was greater than the Candida score [0.840 (95%CI 0.778-0.902) vs. 0.539 (95%CI 0.464-0.615), p<0.001]. The calibration curve showed good predictive values and observed values of the nomogram; the DCA results showed that the nomogram had high clinical value. Conclusion: We established a nomogram based on the T-cell count, CD28+CD8+ T-cell count, CD38+CD8+ T-cell count and clinical risk factors that can help clinical physicians quickly rule out IAC or identify elderly patients at greater risk for IAC at the onset of infection.
Keywords: intra-abdominal candidiasis, Elderly, Sepsis, Lymphocyte subtyping, risk stratification, machine learning, nomogram Clinical Trial Registration: chictr.org.cn, identifier ChiCTR2300069020
Received: 26 Aug 2024; Accepted: 29 Nov 2024.
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